There was some really big news not long after out last story about Texas mid-decade redistricting. First, Congressman Greg Casar made clear, through surrogates, that he plans to run for the seat currently held by Lloyd Doggett. Republican mapmakers merged the Austin part of Casar’s current district in with Doggett’s district. Doggett had suggested that Casar run in his (Casar’s) existing, but newly drawn district. He argued that Casar’s popularity and organizing skills made it possible for him to win the now narrowly Republican district. (The new maps have now been approved by the Texas House and Senate and are awaiting Governor Greg Abbott’s signature, which will happen very soon.)
As the specter of a Doggett vs Casar race sunk in among Austin Democrats, Doggett made a surprise announcement on Thursday August 21. The veteran Congressman said that he will not run in his newly redrawn District, meaning there will be no Casar-Doggett face off. Doggett made clear he will run in his current district in the long shot chance that the redistricting is thrown out in court. But, wrote Doggett, “If the courts give Trump a victory in his scheme to maintain control of a compliant House, I will not seek reelection in the reconfigured CD37, even though it contains over 2/3rd of my current constituents.”
It is clear that Doggett was losing some Democratic support once it became apparent that he and Casar would face each other in a battle for Doggett’s current seat. This was reflected in an oped in the Austin Chronicle signed by five prominent Texas Democrats, including major funders for Texas Democrats. It was headlined “Lloyd Doggett: Pass the Torch to a New Generation.” Listed as co-authors were: “Ginny Agnew, former president, Central Austin Democrats; Aimee Cunningham, political activist and donor; Wendy Davis, former Texas state senator; Chuck Herring, former chair, Travis County Democratic Party; Donna Beth McCormick, former president, Texas Democratic Women; and Glen Maxey, former Texas state representative.”
Some of the reasoning was specious. For instance the authors tried to flip Doggett’s earlier suggestion that Casar run in the redrawn Congressional District that he, Casar, currently represents. They argued that Doggett should turn over his district to Casar and run in Casar’s redrawn district: “Doggett’s experience, resources, and resilience give Democrats their best chance for victory” in that district.
The signatories also invoked Doggett being the first member of Congress to call for President Joe Biden to step aside after his disastrous debate performance. The five Democrats wrote, “He (Doggett) was the first to tell Biden to step down. Now, will he?
OK, here’s how that thought process goes.
- Doggett called on President Biden to step aside because the president was showing undeniable signs of cognitive decline;
- Like Biden, Doggett is old;
- So Doggett should step aside as well;
- and if he doesn’t he’s a hypocrite.
But, wait a minute. Doggett has shown no signs of cognitive decline nor confusion. In fact he has been energized and articulate in fighting against Donald Trump and his worst tendencies.
Also, most of the people signing the oped are not exactly — as the old saying goes — spring chickens. So their own argument could be construed to mean that people should discount what they’re saying because most of them are old.
Most of the people signing the oped are not exactly — as the old saying goes — spring chickens.
So the reasoning may have been flawed, and even insulting, but the message was clear. A battle between Doggett and Casar was going to be painful and divisive and some Democrats who have previously supported Doggett would side with Casar. The list of signers also indirectly made clear that some major fundraisers would be siding with Casar in any race against Doggett.
The loss of major fundraisers is unlikely to have scared Doggett off, given that he has six million dollars in his campaign account. And the reality of some former supporters not going with him this time by no means guaranteed that Doggett would lose an election.
Taking stock of the situation though Doggett made his announcement, writing, “I had hoped that my commitment to reelection under any circumstances would encourage Congressman Casar to not surrender his winnable district to Trump. While his apparent decision is most unfortunate, I prefer to devote the coming months to fighting Trump tyranny and serving Austin rather than waging a struggle with fellow Democrats.”
“I had hoped that my commitment to reelection under any circumstances would encourage Congressman Casar to not surrender his winnable district to Trump. . .”
Austin Congressman Lloyd Doggett
He added, “52 years ago this very week, I won a special election to become Austin’s youngest State Senator. In more recent decades, so many of our neighbors have sustained me to overcome repeated Republican efforts to get rid of me. Though recognizing that Republicans will be gleeful at their success should the courts bless Trump’s outrageous gerrymandering, I promise them, at minimum, 16 more months of vigorous advocacy and continued active community involvement thereafter. And there remains the possibility that a court decision will permit me another full term of service.”
Doggett concluded, “Libby and I are most appreciative for your support and encouragement. Together, we have much work to accomplish to ensure victories up and down the ballot.”
Lloyd and Libby Doggett at one of many functions they attended over the years. from Libby Doggett’s Facebook page.
Doggett elaborated during a discussion with Ali Velshi on MS NOW, formerly known as MSNBC. He told Velshi: “We have seen the Trump march to tyranny go forward step by step. I’ve been blessed to serve my home town for so many years, but I have never seen a greater peril to American democracy than right now. And, I think it calls for all of us to be on board, of all generations, and directing all of our attention toward Trump. I hope that the court will uphold the current map, not the Trump map. But, if that does not occur, it would create a problem if we had two people competing instead of fighting Trump. I had hoped that Congressman Casar would defend his district. And, I think really the next step is, how do we find candidates with the courage to challenge these Trump districts. We cannot afford for Trump to leave Texas with five new Republicans and I believe some of these districts — particularly Congressman Casar’s which is 57% Hispanic, more than his district today and in which Biden got 49% of the vote — that that is a winnable district. But, it takes a lot of hard work and determination to appeal to many disaffected Hispanics, particularly who moved toward Trump in the last election.”
Is the Race Over Now?
The widespread presumption is that Casar will now just walk into the seat unchallenged. Wasting no time, he announced for the seat currently held by Doggett on Monday (August 25). It should be kept in mind, however, that the Democratic primary won’t be held until next March. So it is entirely possible that another Democrat or Democrats could step in to challenge Casar. That is not probable, but open Congressional seats are rare. Even Lyndon Johnson drew nine opponents in 1937 when he ran for an open seat created by the death of Congressman James P. Buchanan — for whom Lake Buchanan and the Buchanan Dam are named. This analogy, however, only goes so far because this seat is only semi-open since there is an incumbent running in it.
Nonetheless it will be amazing — though not surprising — if Casar walks into Doggett’s Congressional seat without a serious Democratic challenger, and without having ever been seriously challenged regarding his performance in office – either his record at the City Council or in Congress. There is ample record there for an opponent to scrutinize, but Casar’s political position is formidable.
At least one Democrat may be willing to run in Casar’s redrawn district
Meanwhile there is some Democratic activity in the newly drawn District 35 that Casar is abandoning. Alfred Stanley, a longtime Democratic fundraiser, was on the call when Doggett told core supporters of his decision. He listened as Doggett explained that he didn’t want to spend the next six months fighting against another Democrat and dividing Austin.
Stanley thinks that the best chance to thwart GOP plans to take five Congressional seats away from Democrats would have been for Casar, who represents District 35, and has a district office in Bexar County, to have fought to hold it as an incumbent. Frustrated that Casar won’t try, Stanley called a friend who is a Alamo City native.
Stanley’s friend is John Lira, a Marine veteran who has run for Congress before. He ran in 2022 in District 23, a district which ran from western San Antonio to El Paso and had been tweaked a year before to favor a GOP candidate. Lira ran a competitive race. He pulled 39% against Republican Tony Gonzales and raised $750,000.
Stanley called Lira hoping to convince the Marine veteran that running for the District 35 seat is worth a try. He offered to serve as Lira’s campaign finance director should Lira decide to run.
Lira was born and raised in the District. He served 11 years in the Marines, including two deployments in Iraq. According to his LinkedIn page, Lira has a degree in political science from the University of Texas at San Antonio and a master’s degree in Public Policy and Management from Carnegie Mellon University.
Extra: City Budget heads to the voters
Meanwhile the Austin City Council passed a budget on August 14. But, that doesn’t mean the City budget process is over. Austin voters will get to weigh in big time come November.
That’s because the Mayor and Council — with the exception of Council Member Marc Duchen — voted to raise property taxes more than the 3.5% allowed under state law. That means they have to take the additional rate increase to voters in what’s called a tax rate election (TRE).
Ultimately the Council settled on a 5 cents per $100 valuation increase above the 3.5% increase allowed under state law. According to City budget documents that means:
- a property tax increase for the “typical homeowner” of $155 from the state allowed 3.5% hike contained in the City Manager’s proposed budget;
- a proposed annual increase of $201 for the “typical homeowner,” from the 5 cents proposed for the tax rate election;
- the two increases would result in an overall 18% rise in City property taxes compared to the current fiscal year;
- or $356 annually for the “typical homeowner.”
This does not include the property tax increases proposed by other jurisdictions like Travis County and Central Health, nor City fees that are being raised.
The election battle has already begun. Jeffery Bowen — a mayoral candidate last year, a critic of Council budgetary policies and a longtime member of the Austin Neighborhoods Council — filed suit over the ballot language approved by Council. Bowen earlier appealed to the Council to change the language — and offered specific suggestions — during the final Council hearing on the budget.
Jeffery Bowen
Bowen is represented by Council nemesis/former County Judge Bill Aleshire. A press statement accompanying the filing summarizes the suit, “The lawsuit claims that the ballot language does not explain the ‘purpose’ of the tax increase in definite and clear terms as required by the Texas Supreme Court in Dacus v. Parker in 2015. First, the ballot language gives voters the impression that the 16% tax increase would only apply to this year’s budget. Also, the language misleads voters and tries to attract votes with ‘vote bait’ language like programs for ‘housing affordability’ and ‘homelessness’ without making any enforceable commitment that those programs will be funded by this Council for future City Councils with this Forever Tax increase.”
The press release also features a quote from Aleshire. There he adds, “Those who are attracted to the programs listed in the ballot language have no way to enforce that funding and are just as likely to be ripped off by this or future City Councils just exactly like occurred with the last tax rate election, for Project Connect.”
Aleshire is referring to the planned rail system which voters approved in 2020. Soon after voter approval major cost overruns developed. The length and scope of the rail system was reduced to less than half the length promised to voters. The Austin Transit Partnership, which is implementing that project on behalf of the City and Capital Metro is plowing ahead with the planning and design phase of the project.
Another dark cloud, however, hangs over Project Connect. Imbedded in the financial plan for Project Connect is an assumption that the federal government will fund roughly half the system. There have of course been some recent changes in the federal government; let’s just say that it’s difficult to imagine the Trump administration signing a check to pay for half of Austin’s light rail.
On top of that the federal government now lists the project as costing $8.2 billion while the ATP still has it at $7.1 billion.
Another Council expenditure that will draw scrutiny during the tax rate election is the convention center. The City is tearing down the current one to make room for a brand new one to rise. A petition drive led by veteran environmentalist Bill Bunch is seeking to derail that endeavor.
So the excitement never ends and it should be an interesting fall in Austin politics.
One thing the TRE does is provide more time to scrutinize the budget, which we will undertake here at the Austin Independent. Stay tuned.
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