Spoiler alert: the most likely outcome from Austin’s City Council elections is that nothing much will change. Five of the ten Council seats are on the ballot. Four incumbents are seeking reelection and all of them, to varying degrees, stand a good chance of winning reelection. In the sole open seat, District 2, the widely perceived frontrunner (David Chincanchan) is virtually an incumbent. He is a former aide to Council Member Pio Renteria (not up for election this cycle) and stands with the actions of the Council on every major issue.
None of this is meant to diminish the campaign of any candidate or write them off before the voters have spoken. I will attempt to give all the candidates a fair shot in the articles posted alongside this one, and in the candidate questionnaires. Instead, this overview is an attempt to realistically describe the political landscape going into the election and how that landscape is shaped by the 10-1 single member district system. It is also intended to lay out the most likely possibilities for change.
In an earlier story I discussed a few ironies related to the City Council races. That story focused on the particular irony that while the Council has been divided into geographical districts for six years now, much of the opposition to incumbents in this election is coming from groups angry with, and organized against, the entire Council. It would certainly add to the irony if all those Council Members got reelected.
Between them, those groups — Voices of Austin and Fight for Austin PAC — focus on the police budget, the repeal of the camping ban, Project Connect, and the Land Development Code (LDC) rewrite. (Voices stays away from the camping ban issue and Fight for Austin does not focus on the LDC.) Even if all the incumbents were defeated (highly unlikely to impossible), it would still not change the Council majority on most of these issues. In fact, with only five seats up for election, that means it is mathematically impossible to elect a new majority on issues where there is unanimous, 11 member, agreement. Cutting the police budget and putting Project Connect on the ballot were both unanimous votes of the Council. So, unless there is an unlikely turning out of incumbents en masse, the vote balance is unlikely to shift on the Council. Of course a clear and massive outpouring of opposition to the police budget cuts could change some minds of Council Members who get reelected, or who are not on the ballot until 2022 — although that would vary by district.
For its part, Project Connect will be decided by voters at the same time the Council winners are chosen. If it passes then Council Members will be widely expected to carry out the will of the voters. If it does not pass then whoever is on the Council will have to plot a different way forward on transportation.
The repeal of the camping ban was a nine to two vote with Kathie Tovo and Alison Alter voting no. Tovo and Alter, along with Council Members Leslie Pool and Ann Kitchen, returned a few months later with a two-pronged proposal; one part would have added some restrictions on camping, while the second part featured measures requested by Police Chief Brian Manley that were based on lessons learned from a few months of enforcing the new ordinance. That proposal, however, was replaced with a substitute motion by the Council majority. Tovo, Alter, Pool and Kitchen voted no on the substitute motion.
The bottom line is that the Council election is unlikely to shift the majority on that issue. Plus, the Council has added a number of other initiatives aimed at helping the homeless in the year plus since repealing the camping ban, making the issue even more complicated. So a shift in the voting majority on issues related to homelessness also appears unlikely.
The one major issue in the campaign where there is an outside chance to flip the majority is on the Land Development Code rewrite. There the vote count is seven to four (Mayor Steve Adler, Mayor Pro Tem Delia Garza, and Council Members Pio Renteria, Greg Casar, Jimmy Flannigan and Paige Ellis on the yes side; Council Members Kathie Tovo, Leslie Pool, Ann Kitchen, and Alison Alter against the LDC as currently constituted).
The one major issue in the campaign where there is an outside chance to flip the majority is on the Land Development Code rewrite.
So a gain of two votes by the opposition could flip the majority.
This brings us to another irony. The Council majority noted immediately above wants in the worst way to put issues of development behind them, to end the decades-long growth and development battles. As Greg Casar put it to the Austin Monitor in 2019, Austin needs to move beyond being “trapped in the 1990s” with a mentality of being either pro- or anti-development. Casar apparently did not realize that development battles started at least two decades before the 1990s and well before he was born.
The irony is that still, in the now fourth election cycle of the 10-1 era, that most enduring of local Austin conflicts — development or land use — remains a major, if not dominant, issue in Council races.
Of the four incumbents running for reelection, two, Greg Casar and Jimmy Flannigan, are strong supporters of the LDC rewrite, while the other two, Leslie Pool and Alison Alter, are strong opponents.
Also, under a court ruling on protest rights, the Council needs nine votes to pass upzonings (a core part of the LDC rewrite) in zoning cases where the property owner, or a certain percentage of nearby property owners, is opposed. So it is also possible that the pro-LDC could flip two seats — in which case the LDC would likely roar quickly to approval.
The more likely of the two above possibilities, however, appears to be the anti-LDC forces gaining a majority — although that too is a long shot.
For that to occur, first, both Pool and Alter would have to win reelection. — or be replaced by an anti-LDC incumbent. In Pool’s case her single opponent, Morgan Witt, is somewhat vague on the LDC, but shares core rhetoric, positions and endorsements with LDC supporters. In Alter’s race, at least one of her opponents, Jennifer Virden, is clearly against the LDC; and Robert Thomas also expresses opposition, although in a less strong manner. So, though Alter is the proven quantity in fighting the LDC, it is theoretically possible that she could lose, but her seat remain a no vote on the LDC as currently constituted. (More on this in our coverage of D 10)
If Districts 7 and 10 stay in the hands of LDC opponents, the next step would be for an anti-LDC candidate to prevail in District 2. The only candidate openly and clearly against the LDC there is Casey Ramos. David Chincanchan, widely considered the frontrunner, is a strong LDC proponent, although he told the Independent that he is open to compromise discussions on transition zones — the most controversial aspect of the LDC rewrite. Vanessa Fuentes, who earned the American-Statesman endorsement, expresses reservations on the LDC and says she would have voted against what Council put forward on second reading. Still, Fuentes’ LDC position remains vague.
David Chincanchan Vanessa Fuentes
The final element necessary to flip the LDC majority would be for one of the two pro-LDC Members running for election to be defeated by an anti-LDC opponent. The two on the ballot are Greg Casar and Jimmy Flannigan. Defeating Casar will be a very uphill battle in his northeast, semi-far north central district, that is heavily Democratic and heavily Hispanic.
That leaves Flannigan in District 6. He has a strong base there and is running a forceful campaign. Nonetheless, he appears to be the most vulnerable of the incumbents, especially of the pro-LDC incumbents. For one thing, his race is one where the police budget cuts will be the most unpopular. The same could be true of the camping ban repeal, and even Project Connect. After all this is the same district that in 2014 elected far right ideologue Don Zimmerman — who Flannigan defeated two years later.
Flannigan has a strong base in in District 6 and is running a forceful campaign. Nonetheless, he appears to be the most vulnerable of the incumbents, especially of the pro-LDC incumbents
Flannigan was particularly active on the police budget cuts. Early on he enthused that he thought more than $100 million could be found to cut or transfer from the APD budget. He is also the lead Council enthusiast for repurposing Police Headquarters downtown. And, Flannigan even proposed splitting the Police Department (APD) into five separate departments of Patrol, Investigations, Traffic Safety, Professional Standards, and Emergency Communications and Technology — a questionable level of detail and management for the Council to be involved in.
Flannigan faces three opponents, all of whom oppose the LDC as currently constituted. In particular Dr. Jennifer Mushtaler, an OBGYN who lives in River Place, is taking it to Flannigan on the LDC and other issues.
A lot will depend on what issues voters concentrate on when considering how to vote in Council elections. For instance a number of progressive activists are making a strong push to reelect Flannigan to that seat. If the election turns on that, then Flannigan will probably win. If instead a large portion of voters focus in on Flannigan’s votes on the LDC, the police budget, Project Connect, and the camping ban, then the challengers may have a chance — although those positions have some support in District 6 as well. That race is covered in more detail here.
To summarize, the most likely outcome of the City Council elections is for very little to change, the one area where a major change is possible is on the Land Development Code.
(This story was updated to make clear that Council Members Alter and Tovo voted no on the camping ban and to add context to that vote. We apologize for the error.)
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For more Council election coverage please click on our Austin Elections category or view the Council candidate questionnaires.
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Also please remember that journalism costs money. Please consider subscribing or donating. Funds will go primarily toward expanding the Independent’s reach, web redesign, and paying photographers and artists.
To receive notification when the Austin Independent posts stories, to subscribe, or to write to the editor please send us an email under Contact on the home page,or click here.
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