It’s that time of year when the hopes of Texas Democrats flower, like the bluebonnets that come a few weeks later. But, like the bluebonnets, those Democratic hopes tend to get ground into the dirt by the fall.
There’s something different this year though. Texas Republicans are actually saying that this could be the year Democrats break their 32-year losing streak in statewide elections, and their 38-year losing string in US Senate races. Specifically, US Senator John Cornyn recently warned the Fort Worth Police Association: “If Ken Paxton is the nominee, we could well experience a massacre and the first Democrat elected since 1994 in the state of Texas.”
Cornyn continued, “I know people assume that Texas is a red state, will always be a red state, but when you nominate a flawed individual with the sort of political baggage that Ken Paxton has, you are risking all that. You’re risking the United States Senate seat. You’re risking President Trump’s agenda . . . and you are risking everybody else on the ballot below the Senate race.”
Yes, this is at least a little self-serving for Cornyn who is being challenged by Texas Attorney General Paxton for the seat Cornyn has held since 2003. Cornyn only fears a “massacre” by Democrats if he is not at the top of the ballot. But, having the possibility of Paxton being at the top of the ticket has also been driving Democratic hopes for months now. Having Cornyn talking about the same thing is, at the very least, interesting.
There’s so much more I could say about the Republican race and I will try to return to that before election day. But, for now let’s turn to the Democratic side. Last week we discussed how both top Democratic Senate contenders — Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico — have said or done things which Republicans will likely use against whoever is the Democratic nominee in the fall. (We also discussed “Mediocre” Gate at length.)
Crockett, however, clearly has provided a much larger body of material for Republicans, which is the core reason they were so gleeful when she announced her candidacy in December — with some calling it a wonderful early Christmas gift.
Despite “electability” arguments that Talarico stands a better chance of winning in the fall, in polls so far (none of which have come in the last three weeks) Crockett and Talarico fare virtually the same in theoretical matchups against Cornyn, Paxton or Congressman Wesley Hunt — a few points behind, but within striking distance.
Hunt is a northwest Houston area Congressman who is also seeking the Republican Senatorial nomination and polling in the high teens. That’s around 10 to 15 points behind Paxton and Cornyn in most polls, but possibly enough to force a runoff.
In any case Republicans are largely holding their fire until there is a Democratic nominee, whom most of them clearly hope is Crockett. (Crockett recently sent a fundraising appeal that cited a poll showing her ahead of Paxton by four points. This poll, however, was evidently an internal poll to Crockett’s campaign. It has not been added to the Real Clear Politics polling average and evidently there was nothing included in the poll except the Crockett-Paxton matchup.)
Of course we do not know exactly what quotes and policy positions Republicans plan to use against whoever emerges as the Democratic nominee. But, if it is Crockett, one really strong possibility will be her remarks about Latinos, or Hispanics.
Crockett’s Thoughts on Latino Voters – “Slave Mentality” and Much More
Latinos are now a plurality of the population in Texas. According to 2024 figures from the U.S. Census, Latinos are 40.3% of the Texas population while Whites make up 38.7%. Blacks are 13.7%, and Asians 6.4%. The remainder is categorized as “other” or “mixed race.” [It comes out to slightly more than 100% on the Census link that reports these figures.]
Latinos are not yet the biggest portion of voters because they are registered in lower numbers that whites; (which seems like a good project for the Democratic Party and on a massive scale, not the decentralized voter drives of yesteryear).
In the 2024 elections Latinos swung more Republican than ever before. For instance here’s a Texas Tribune summary on which the Austin Independent elaborated at the time.
“In the traditionally Democratic strongholds along the border, Trump managed a near sweep.
He won 14 out of the 18 counties within 20 miles of the border, a number that doubled his attention-grabbing 2020 performance in the Latino-majority region. He carried all four counties in the Rio Grande Valley just eight years after drawing a mere 29% in the region — a feat that included delivering 97% Latino Starr County to Republicans for the first time since 1896. And, though he lost El Paso, one of the border’s most populous counties, he narrowed margins there in ways not seen in decades.”
This was all of course a brutal blow to Democrats’ long held belief that they would eventually prevail in Texas because “demographics is destiny,” i.e. that the Latino population was increasing and Latino voters would always vote in large majorities for Democrats.
There was a significant shift back toward Democrats among Hispanics in special elections during 2025. That was reflected in the margins for Abigail Spanberger in the Virginia governor’s race. And, people who canvassed door-to-door reported that many Hispanics felt betrayed by Republicans, primarily on the immigration issue.
In any case Latinos will make up a very significant portion of the electorate in this year’s Democratic primary. So it might not be a good idea to insult the whole group. That would definitely be something Republicans would notice.
Crockett’s Interview with Vanity Fair
So, to Democrats out there who think I should not be bringing this up, let me assure you, Republican operatives have already read the interview I’m about to quote. And it might do Democrats some good to take a more complete look now rather than wait on the Republican version in the fall.
It has been fairly widely reported that Crockett said that she believes Latinos have a “slave mentality,” but, as usual, the mainstream media focuses on a very short quote, less than a sentence in most reporting on this issue. So, let’s start with the two complete sentences on the topic from Jasmine Crockett:
“It almost reminds me of what people would talk about when they would talk about kind of like ‘slave mentality’ and the hate that some slaves would have for themselves. It’s almost like a slave mentality that they (Latino voters) have.”
Jasmine Crockett in a screenshot of her announcement video. Image at top is also a screenshot from the beginning of her announcement video, before she turned to face the camera.
In a recent interview Texas Monthly asked Crockett about these remarks. Let’s see how that went.
Texas Monthly: “Hispanic Texans have been moving in the Republican direction in recent elections. You told Vanity Fair that Hispanic voters who support Trump have a ‘slave mentality.’ How are you going to get them to vote for you with that kind of rhetoric?”
Jasmine Crockett: “Donald Trump said he grabbed people by the p—y and that he could get elected even after killing somebody. I have found that real people are not dissuaded by the fact that I have laid some things out.”
Some politicians, in a similar situation, might have seen the question as an opportunity to try and patch up damage done by a previous statement, or to try and redefine their views on a critically important constituency. As Jasmine Crockett frequently points out, however, she is a different type of politician.
Also, it’s not clear here who Crockett means when she says “real people.” In any case, Crockett doesn’t appear to be worried about her characterizations of Latinos. That may or may not be true for Latino voters. In any case, let’s look at “some things” that she “laid out.”
First, let’s establish some broader context for Crockett’s comments about Latinos during a December 2024 Vanity Fair interview, not long after Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party lost the 2024 election. While the Democrats suffered a disastrous and humiliating trouncing, Crockett was considered a rising star in many Democratic circles, based on her flamboyant dressing down of various Republicans in Congress.
The interview began with Crockett being asked how she looks back on the recent election, including “if you could just expand a little bit on what your sense is of how race and gender figured into this election.”
She began:
“I don’t think there was anything more that the vice president could have done. I think that she ran a flawless campaign—from the amount of money that she raised, to the platforms that she was willing to go to and communicate [on], to the rollout of her policies. I think that there was nothing more that she could have done in this 107-day sprint that had never been done before, in so many ways—from a Democratic nominee stepping aside, another one being put in, to also being the first woman of color to actually do it. I think that she did everything right. I think that she was the perfect candidate. And I think that the people that were looking for perfection got exactly what they were looking for.”
Crockett then pointed out that she and other members of the Congressional Black Caucus, “stood strong by” Joe Biden after his disastrous debate with Trump. She then emphasized that “Black people historically have been fiercely loyal” to the Democratic Party, but acknowledged that Harris and the party lost some Black votes. “There was a bit of flaking. And that bit of flaking came from Black men, which I’m going to chalk up to misogyny.”
“There was a bit of flaking (by Black voters). And that bit of flaking came from Black men, which I’m going to chalk up to misogyny.”
Jasmine Crockett
So the loss of a significant number of Black male voters to Republicans is explained by those men’s dislike of, and contempt for, women. It wasn’t any economic, philosophical or cultural conditions. And it wasn’t anything that the Harris campaign did wrong, because she ran a “perfect campaign.” It was just misogyny among Black men.
Next Crockett offered, “I don’t trust white women. I said, I’m just telling you, and I think you need to have conversations with your sisters, because they are the group that failed Hillary Clinton.” She further explained, “It was consistent across the board that the pollsters were saying that women were going for Harris in bigger numbers than historically they had. But when it came down to it, I don’t know if it was that they was lying to the folks, because I guess they were, but [white women] retreated and they [Black women] did not.”
“I don’t trust white women. I said, I’m just telling you, and I think you need to have conversations with your sisters. . .”
jasmine crockett
While it is factually correct that early polling showed more white women supporting Harris than eventually turned out to be the case the advocacy group Galvanize Action also reported:
“It’s true that, once again, a majority of white women (51%) voted for Donald Trump. It’s also true that white women voted for Trump by a smaller margin than they did in 2020. While still leaning Republican, white women supported Trump by 4 points in 2024 (51% to 47%), compared to an 8-point margin in 2020 (53% to 45%). That modest improvement for Democrats was one of the few groups where movement went in their favor.”
It was only at this point that Crockett turned her attention to Latinos, although she transitioned to the subject by referring back to Black men.
“I was not shocked that there had been a bleeding of Black men, and I was not shocked that there had been a bleeding of Latinos. I remember the first time Latinos let me down, in Florida with Hillary. When I saw how many Hispanics as a whole had voted, like they were voting in these big numbers, I was like, Oh, we gonna get Florida, so we good—we got Florida. Wrong. Absolutely wrong.”
Here Crockett does something that whites and the media have been traditionally accused of, often correctly — especially the media. She lumps all Latinos together, evidently not understanding, or at least not acknowledging, that there are many different nationalities and different interests within the Latino community. For instance Latinos of Cuban descent have traditionally voted Republican in larger percentages than say people of Mexican descent. And people of Cuban descent are a much larger share of Latinos in Florida than in other states.
Also, and perhaps the two are related, Cubans have generally had much less difficulty with immigration, due to being granted favorable status after 1959 to flee the Castro regime.
Crockett then explained that she has learned more about the Latino community since 2016. “In my later years, I’ve learned about all the complexities within the Latino community . . . I can say that the immigration thing has always been something that has perplexed me about this community. It’s basically like, ‘I fought to get here, but I left y’all where I left y’all and I want no more y’all to come here. If I wanted to be with y’all, I would stay with y’all, but I don’t want ya’ll coming to my new home.”
Here Crockett again lumps all Latinos together, but in slightly different ways. For instance she frames the issue like all Latinos are immigrants. As most people surely know by now, that is very far from the truth. Many Latinos, millions, are US natives. That fact doesn’t make it into Crockett’s formulation.
Crockett continued, contrasting Latinos unfavorably with other racial and ethnic groups, “That is my distilled summary of what happens within the Latino community. I’ve not run into that with the Asian community. I’ve not run into that with the African community. I’ve not run into that with the Caribbean community. I’ve only run into it with Hispanics. When they think of ‘illegals,’ they think of, you know, maybe people that came out of the cartels and that kind of, like, the criminal-type book or whatever. It’s insane. It almost reminds me of what people would talk about when they would talk about kind of like ‘slave mentality’ and the hate that some slaves would have for themselves. It’s almost like a slave mentality that they have.”
“That is my distilled summary of what happens within the Latino community. I’ve not run into that with the Asian community. I’ve not run into that with the African community. I’ve not run into that with the Caribbean community.”
Jasmine crockett
Crockett did note in a subsequent paragraph that she knows that not all Latinos are immigrants, but still managed to hurl some insults:
“It is wild to me when I hear how anti-immigrant they are as immigrants, many of them I’m talking about people that literally just got here and can barely vote that are having this kind of attitude.”
I’ve only run into it with Hispanics. When they think of ‘illegals,’ they think of, you know, maybe people that came out of the cartels and that kind of, like, the criminal-type book or whatever. It’s insane.
jasmine crockett
Democrats might want to be concerned about these comments coming back to haunt them in the fall. It remains to be seen whether that will be the case. But, also, for a party that is so focused on racial justice and racial sensitivity it seems odd — and not right — for that party to ignore comments that so blatantly lump a group of people together and make these sort of accusations about them. Just saying.
And these comments from someone who just last week implied that even discussing her “electability” is racist. “I am tired of people asking whether or not I am electable. The reality is that that is nothing but dog whistles.” In this context, of course, dog whistle means a coded racist message.
__________________________
Folks: We need more paid subscriptions to continue sending you our unique style of journalism. Local, independent journalism is very poorly funded. That is definitely the case with the Austin Independent. Please consider subscribing and/or donating today.
To receive notification when the Austin Independent posts stories, to subscribe, or to write to the editor please send us an email under Contact on the home page,or click here.
The Austin Independent, a publication of The Austin Independent, LLC
All Rights Reserved