The day before the election last week I made a rare foray into commenting on national politics. I mean, it was the presidential election. Everybody has a take on that. Given the widespread feeling that the race was a toss up, I listed five reasons Donald Trump might win and five reasons that Kamala Harris might win. I think those held up pretty well, especially the ones on why Trump might win.
In this installment I’m going to finish off my detour into national politics, but bring it closer to home with a look at the presidential election results in Texas, specifically in counties along the border. Then, in an installment to follow, I will offer an analysis of local races — with the national and local being very connected.
There have already been a considerable number of election analyses. I’m in the camp with those who say that Democrats need to do a whole lot of reflection in regard to the outcome; that is, as opposed to just condemning the majority of American voters as racist, sexist, ignorant or some combination of the three.
I agree that there’s some racism, sexism and ignorance out there, but regardless, the fact remains, a majority of Americans prefer Donald Trump to a Democrat. I agree with most of the criticisms of President-elect Trump: like that he is corrupt; an incessant liar; and a danger to the nation and the world. Like other Democrats, I am worried about our country, and even more immediately worried about Ukraine. Nonetheless, I have been annoying some of my fellow Democrats by insisting that — rather than raging about how we lost because of the racism, sexism, or ignorance of our fellow Americans — we seriously reflect on why, despite Trump’s many glaring faults, a majority of Americans would rather vote for him than for a Democrat; seemingly any Democrat.
I’m in the camp with those who say that Democrats need to do a whole lot of reflection in regard to the outcome; that is, as opposed to just condemning the majority of American voters as racist, sexist, ignorant or some combination of the three.
The political situation in Texas has become the opposite of the old “Yellow Dog Democrat” era. I refer to the ancient adage which went something like this, “Texans will vote for a yellow dog before they will vote for a Republican.” That statement was usually delivered in something of an East Texas accent. Folks of a certain age can perhaps remember Ann Richards saying it.
Nowadays, it seems like a majority of Texans, and Americans, will vote for anything, or anybody, so long as it’s not a Democrat — they will even for Donald Trump.
I admit that it is difficult for Democrats to do what I am suggesting. I sometimes find myself slipping into doing what I am asking people not to do. For instance when I saw a headline about how the Pentagon is expecting major shake-ups under Trump it made me angry that people would put Donald Trump in charge of the military. And when I think about how Trump will likely pardon people convicted of insurrection and violent crimes on January 6, I wonder how my fellow Americans can vote to make that possible. Another example came across my screen in a news alert just as I was doing my final edit on this article, “Trump picks Matt Gaetz for attorney general.”
Yes, these all seem crazy to me. But, it all still leads back to the question: why would a majority of Americans vote for Donald Trump rather than a Democrat? I think it is essential that Democrats ponder this question on a deeper level than has generally been the case up to now.
East Texas and Yellow Dogs
By the way, a few paragraphs ago I mentioned East Texas. There used to be a lot of Democrats in East Texas. And, I don’t mean just Jim Crow Democrats. There were even what were considered “progressive” Democrats (of the time). For example Senator Ralph Yarborough came from East Texas. Speaker of the House Sam Rayburn was also from the region. Among Rayburn’s accomplishments was shepherding the Civil Rights Acts of 1957 and 1960 through Congress; the first Civil Rights bills to pass since Reconstruction.
Yarborough was the leader of Texas progressives. He voted for the two Civil Rights bill Rayburn pushed through the House and also the world changing Civil Rights Bills of 1964. (Rayburn died in 1961.) Yarborough also championed environmental causes, including being a leader in the creation of the Big Thicket National Preserve.
Senator Ralph Yarborough and Speaker of the House Sam Rayburn – Yarborough from Senate.gov and Rayburn from the Texas Historical Association (Photo at top from WhiteHouse.gov)
Also, a friend of mine recalls campaigning in East Texas with Frances “Sissy” Farenthold when she ran for Governor, in the Democratic primary, in 1972 and 1974. He says there were many progressive Democrats there then who supported her. Farenthold lost both races to Dolph Briscoe, a more conservative Democrat. (At the time the Democratic primary was the main election, because the winner always went on to win in November.)
The tide began to turn when Republican Bill Clements was elected Governor in 1978. He then lost to Mark White in 1982, but defeated White in 1986 and became Governor again. Democrat Ann Richards won the governorship in 1990, but the same night there was a harbinger of things to come. Texas Agricultural Commissioner Jim Hightower — one of the most progressive people to ever hold statewide office in Texas — was defeated by then State Representative Rick Perry.
Four years later Richards lost to George W. Bush and the rout was on. Before too long Texas Democrats were akin to an endangered species. After one election, in either the late 1990s or early 2000s, the late American-Statesman columnist John Kelso suggested (as I recall) that the most humane thing to do would be a program in which the remaining Democrats in East Texas would to be trapped, tranquilized, removed from the wild, and either brought to Austin, or put on a preserve somewhere in East Texas. Kelso was sort of kidding.
Down in the Valley
This brings us to the election results in the Rio Grande Valley and other areas along the border. It may not be long before we have to figure out a humane solution for the vanishing breed of border Democrats. Before proceeding further, let’s pause to establish how important it is to Democratic hopes and dreams, that the border region remain heavily Democratic. During their decades in the political wilderness many Texas Democrats have been sustained by a belief that demographics is destiny. Specifically this involved the fact that the Hispanic, or Latino, or Mexican American population is increasing faster than other parts of the population. And, went the argument, since this demographic votes overwhelmingly Democratic, Democrats would eventually overtake Republicans as the majority party in Texas. According to this prophecy, it was only a matter of time. With that in mind let’s take a look at the recent election results.
During their decades in the political wilderness many Texas Democrats have been sustained by a belief that demographics is destiny.
Here I first turn to Ruy Teixeira of the Liberal Patriot. Teixeira has been pointing out Democratic liabilities for months, years actually, warning that Democrats need to move to the center. The morning after the election he provided an analysis of Associated Press data from the AP’s “VoteCast data;” of which Teixeira writes, “I consider to be far superior to the exits (polls).” Before proceeding I feel the need to provide a warning to readers, especially Democrats. Clicking on the link to VoteCast provided by Teixeira routes one to a Fox News page which has the VoteCast data. That’s because the AP partnered with Fox, and also the University of Chicago. I also want to note that Fox has a pretty straightforward record on analyzing actual numbers; as evidenced during the 2020 vote counting when Fox News called Arizona for Joe Biden, enraging Donald Trump. Additionally, I don’t believe that Teixeira would use biased data.
Now, let’s look specifically at some of the data. Referring to Latinos nationally, Teixeira writes, “Trump got 42 percent of the Hispanic vote and 47 percent among Hispanic men.” Comparing the Democratic victory margin to 2020 Teixeira continues, “Among Latinos, the Democratic margin was cut in half, plunging to 14 points compared to 28 points for Biden in 2020.”
But, as noted, those figures potentially have the Fox News stain in the eyes of some. Plus, they are national numbers, which include Texas, but are not limited to Texas. More precise, and all from Texas, are actual election results from counties along the Texas border. Here is a Texas Tribune report on that topic.
“In the traditionally Democratic strongholds along the border, Trump managed a near sweep.
He won 14 out of the 18 counties within 20 miles of the border, a number that doubled his attention-grabbing 2020 performance in the Latino-majority region. He carried all four counties in the Rio Grande Valley just eight years after drawing a mere 29% in the region — a feat that included delivering 97% Latino Starr County to Republicans for the first time since 1896. And, though he lost El Paso, one of the border’s most populous counties, he narrowed margins there in ways not seen in decades.”
“In the traditionally Democratic strongholds along the border, Trump managed a near sweep.”
texas tribune
The Tribune also provided some helpful maps to drive home the point. Those were under the headline “Counties along the border continue to flip” with the explanation, “Trump was the top vote-getter in a majority of the counties along the Texas-Mexico border in 2024. This continues the trend of border counties voting more conservative in presidential races. Shown is how many counties have voted for each party’s candidate in each race since 1996.”
The maps show a startling trend since 1996 in which Republican presidential candidates have steadily gained with occasional surges by Democratic candidates, particularly Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.
So what is a good, “progressive” Austin Democrat to make of these results from the borderlands? Are the people from that area who voted for Trump racist? Sexist? Ignorant? Are they Fascist and Nazi sympathizers, or willing to let the United States go Fascist? None of these seem like optimal or productive conclusions. That’s one reason why I say that Democrats need to reflect more deeply on why they lost, and why Trump won.
Coming next: Analysis of local races.
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