The Austin Independent is primarily a journal about local government and politics, but we reserve the right to occasionally comment on national affairs. It has been a long time since we did so, but now seems like the right time.
What follows is just a list I made of reasons that could lead to, or contribute to, a victory for either candidate in the presidential race. It started as just something I was doing to partially relieve election anxiety, but I decided to share it. Perhaps some readers can use it to help ease their anxiety or to help explain what happens on election night and in the days afterward.
This list also reflects my ongoing attempt to give people who vote and think differently than me the benefit of the doubt; and to instead try and figure out what might be leading them to vote the way they do; as opposed to just condemning people as dumb, or racist, or sexist, or corrupt. Yes, there are people who are in all those categories, but attributing everything to that does nothing to heal our national divide or to persuade more people to consider different points of view.
Possibly contradictory to that, you will see that I still list the “disaster of civics education in the United States” as a reason people might vote for Trump. That might contradict some of what I say above, but I stand by it because poor civics education is a fact. I believe that it affects all sides. I just think it is more of a factor on the Republican side in our current situation. I particularly mean the apparent willingness to ignore Trump’s violation of norms, like not honoring the peaceful transfer of power.
Why Donald Trump Might Win
- A lot of people in the center or center right are so repulsed by the Woke or practitioners of identity politics or cancel culture — or whatever you’re allowed to call that ideology now — that they will vote for Trump, even though they have serious reservations about him. They would rather be on that side than the identity/woke side and rather see Republicans in power than the identity/woke side (even though Harris herself has not run an identity-based campaign). I’m not the only one with this concern. For instance Barack Obama specifically appealed to voters who are “tired of cancel culture” in a closing pitch for Harris.
- Harris refused to explain her shift from her 2019 position on several major issues. She just said, “my values haven’t changed.” She never said anything like, “I had those positions before I was Vice President. Since then I’ve represented the whole country, I have been deeply involved in a lot of issues and I have learned a lot. During those years I have evolved. But, I still have the same values.”
- Harris is depending too heavily on celebrity endorsements which could drive some swing voters to go in the opposite direction.
- People view the mainstream media as being for Harris and that makes many people more likely to vote for her opponent, even if that opponent is Donald Trump.
- The ongoing disaster of civics education in the United States.
Why Kamala Harris Might Win
- In the Midwest, based on my boring down on some polls, Harris does better in polling of likely voters while Trump does better when less likely voters are counted. This favors her and of course means the turnout pattern is crucial.
- Trump has been falling apart i.e. getting more deranged at his rallies and in his rhetoric — like promising to lock up his critics, weirdly reminiscing about golfer Arnold Palmer and steadily increasing his violent rhetoric. Close to half the country has, up to now, been willing to let this sort of thing slide. But, maybe enough people will notice, and care, to make a difference.
- Harris’s crowds have been really big, including a totally packed stadium in Charlotte. If she can win North Carolina it will upend the race — although if she wins North Carolina, but not Pennsylvania, she will still have to win Michigan, Wisconsin and one more swing state.
- Conventional wisdom and lots of pundits say Harris will lose. This brings to mind the incessant refrain among pundits in 2022 of a “red wave,” which did not happen.
- The number of Republicans supporting her and the remarks from generals on Trump being a fascist may bring some swing voters or Trump wary Republicans to Harris.
Well, that’s all folks. I hope this helps. I heard one report that 70% of Americans are having election anxiety. That seems a little low and might reflect the lack of civics education thing. It would be nice if that anxiety is relieved by late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning; at least to the extent that we know who won. But, we all know it could be a lot longer before we actually know. So buckle up.
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