Things were really looking up for Texas Democrats. Sure, Donald Trump is President and Democrats haven’t won a statewide election since 1994.
But, hope springs eternal. Texas Democrats have been pumped up recently because Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is challenging longtime incumbent US Senator John Cornyn in next year’s Republican primary, and the controversial and divisive Paxton is leading Cornyn in polls. Democratic excitement has been building because polls also show a close race between Paxton and potential Democratic challengers. Possible Democratic Senate candidates are beginning to get media attention.
One Democratic Senatorial contender, State Representative James Talarico of Austin, even went on the Joe Rogan Experience and Rogan liked him so much that he suggested Talarico run for president.
Meanwhile Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett of Dallas has become an in-demand national star with a huge social media following (nobody ever overrated the impact of that.) One poll, somewhat suspiciously from the Republican National Senate Committee, showed her leading the field of potential Democratic senatorial nominees — even though she was not talking about entering the race before that poll.
Given all this, Democratic non-election year enthusiasm was in full flower once again; just like back before November 2024, when demographics was still their destiny. It was only a matter of time until Texas turned blue. So let’s check in.
State Representative James Talarico and Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. Screenshot at top from Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker YouTube channel as he welcomes the Texas Democrats to Illinois. Gene Wu, leader of Texas House Democrats, is speaking flanked by Pritzker on his left and Texas State Representative Trey Martinez Fischer on the right.
And Then. . .
What’s that? Some 60 Democratic members of the Texas House of Representatives just fled the state to Illinois and New York?
Yes, they did. Most of them are in Illinois where they’re being hosted by one of the Democrat’s own billionaires, Governor J.B. Pritzker. Yes, Donald Trump and Texas Governor Greg Abbott literally have Democrats on the run.
As most people know by now, Trump, getting ever more dictator-ish, asked — or told — Abbott to do a mid-decade redistricting to get Trump five more Republican seats in the US House of Representatives. The idea is to help head off any possibility that Democrats will recapture the House majority in next year’s midterm elections. If Trump succeeds the US House (and likely the Senate) will be under Republican control for the rest of Trump’s term.
Abbott of course said yes. Thus, as redistricting neared a vote in the Texas House, House Democrats fled the state in order to prevent a quorom from being present to take action on redistricting. Neither body of the Texas legislature can pass legislation without a quorom present.
Trump, getting ever more dictator-ish, asked — or told — Abbott to do a mid-decade redistricting to get Trump five more Republican seats in the US House of Representatives. . .
Abbott of course said yes.
By the way, if anyone is upset with my dictator-ish comment about the president, here’s another example. Trump recently fired the Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because he didn’t like the numbers in a report from the agency. Who does that? What kind of national leader does that?
Now, back to Democrats on the lam in Illinois and New York; they are trying to exude optimism, sometimes with pithy sayings. For instance, at a press conference where Governor Pritzker welcomed the Texans to Illinois, Representative Trey Martinez Fischer explained to the assembled Yankees, that in Texas there is an expression, “time to cowboy-up.” That time is here, Martinez Fischer said, from Illinois.
Offering a slightly more specific approach, former Congressman Beto O’Rourke — who in November 2018 came the closest of any Texas Democrat since 1994 to winning a statewide election — described the standoff as a way to inspire and invigorate Democrats all over the country.
Speaking shortly before the House Democrats fled the state, O’Rourke told a panel of MSNBC hosts, “My hope is that they will do this (break quorom) and not only deprive Donald Trump of these five seats but really inspire a country that has been waiting for Democrats to fight and to fight to win.” If not, continued O’Rourke, “We will have the consolidation of authoritarian power in America. Those stakes are that stark. . . This doesn’t just matter to the people of Texas. It matters to all 330 million of us wherever we live. This is our last, best chance to stand and fight. And when we fight we have absolutely got to win.”
It seems clear that Democrats have to fight. But, it’s more difficult to see how they are going to win. For one thing they are seriously outnumbered. As State Representative Jolanda Jones of Houston explained in a pre-exodus interview with Roland Martin, “My personal opinion is we need to break up out of here, because there’s 88 Republicans and 62 Democrats in the House. There’s 20 Republicans and 11 Democrats in the Senate. 62 don’t never beat 88. 11 don’t never beat 20. We need to get up out of here.”
Pointing out the numerical imbalance is a sound argument for fleeing the state and breaking quorom. But, the numerical imbalance does not bode well for ultimate Democratic victory in this standoff. The seat count will still be the same until January 2027 (unless Governor Greg Abbott’s threats to get quorom breaking legislators thrown out of office actually succeed).
It seems that Democrats long shot chances boil down to three rough possibilities.
- Stay gone for the rest of the year and into January when it becomes too late for Republicans to change district boundaries before March primaries.
- Do such a good job of framing the issue that Republicans back down or agree to a face-saving compromise that doesn’t win them more seats. This one seems particularly unlikely, especially in the next few weeks.
- Related to #2, probably the strongest weapon Democrats have is the leaders of blue states threatening to do their own mid-decade redistricting to yield more blue seats. This prospect led the Wall Street Journal to call for a truce in which both parties agree to stand down on mid-decade redistricting. The Journal listed a few other potentialities on which the two sides would agree to end or limit gerrymandering. They noted, however, that the most realistic possibility would be a stopgap measure in which a bipartisan coalition in Congress passes a ban on mid-decade redistricting. This option also seems unlikely, especially in the next few weeks. The fact that the Wall Street Journal weighed in appears to show that Democrats are achieving some success in laying out the stakes involved.
Can Texas Democrats Up Their Game?
It seems like at the least Texas Democrats will have to stay gone beyond the first session which ends on August 19. Not only will they have to remain out of the state, but they also need to seriously up their game. One thing is having message discipline. That’s not easy to do when you have a bunch of politicians with free time on their hands and more interest from the media, including national media, than they’ve probably ever had before in their lives.
Beto O’Rourke and Texas State Representative Jolanda Jones
Even the seasoned O’Rourke — in what seemed like quite a veer off topic — called for Democratic Party recognition of a Palestinian state during the same MSNBC interview in which he earlier called the nation to arms for the Texas Redistricting Battle. Bringing the Middle East conflict into the Texas redistricting battle might not be the best way to maintain focus and build a broad coalition.
Back among Texas House Democrats who fled, State Representative Jolanda Jones of Houston has been a frequent interviewee. For instance on Tuesday August 5 she appeared on Don Lemon’s YouTube show. There Jones both compared the redistricting battle to the Holocaust and called Donald Trump “a pedophile.” She later apologized for the Holocaust remark, explaining, “That was a mistake and I apologize for it. Trump is coming for my community, and I get emotional about it and make strong statements. But that was going too far and I retract that comparison.“
Jones was more on message a few days earlier (before the Democratic exodus) when interviewed by Roland Martin. There she discussed how the proposed redistricting will likely result in the loss of a Black held seat in both Houston and the Dallas area. Driving points home like this one seem more fertile ground for Democrats to win more people to their side. For instance providing further detail about Republican plans for District 18 in Houston — the seat held over the decades by Barbara Jordan, Mickey Leland, Craig Washington, Shelia Jackson Lee and Sylvester Turner — could be powerful. (Jones, by the way, is running for that seat, which is open after Turner’s recent death.)
That might not work either, but it would have a better shot than just calling the Republican plan “racist,” which happens repeatedly. At this point in time many people will hear that as just Democratic talking points.
Exceeding 2021 Performance
Texas House Democrats will also have to improve on their performance from the last time they went fugitive. This was in August 2021, during the COVID pandemic, when Democrats relocated to Washington D.C. in an attempt to block Republican legislation tightening Texas rules for voting, including early voting rules. Things did not go particularly well.
The trip began with them releasing a photo of smiling representatives on a plane with no masks — even as the COVID plague raged and Democratic officials nationwide urged, and often required, the wearing of masks. Within days there was a COVID outbreak within the delegation. As the New York Times explained:
“After their arrival in Washington was met with a swarm of television cameras in an airport parking lot, subsequent efforts to draw attention to their cause were less successful.” The Times continued, “After at least six state lawmakers tested positive for the coronavirus, the group is now confined to a Washington hotel, holding virtual meetings and making little headway in its persuasion campaign.”
Before the delegation got quarantined in a hotel, however, they spread the virus to the office of then Speaker Nancy Pelosi. As Drew Hammill, a top Pelosi aide explained in a statement at the time, “Yesterday, a fully vaccinated senior spokesperson in the speaker’s press office tested positive for COVID after contact with members of the Texas state legislature last week.” Hammill added that the stricken aide had not had recent contact with the Speaker herself.
The Democrats were successful in staying away from Texas long enough for that special session to expire. Of course that might have had something to do with even Republicans not wanting them to come back while they had COVID. But, once Abbott called a new special session Democrats began to drift back. Soon there were enough representatives for a quorom and the legislation that Democrats were trying to block passed.
The Democrats were successful in staying away from Texas long enough for that (2021) special session to expire. Of course that might have had something to do with even Republicans not wanting them to come back while they had COVID.
Maybe this time will be different, but Texas House Democrats are going to have to really up their game. Homespun Texas sayings are not going to be enough. And, if anybody uses the one about, “you can put your boots in the oven, but that doesn’t make ‘em biscuits,” well the House Democrats should head home right then.
On second thought, if a Democrat can figure out a way to really nail Republicans with that saying, it might just do the trick. That might even be enough to launch a Senatorial campaign.
- A more technical Part 2 on redistricting will be coming soon. I have noticed that maps in other media generally show the whole state, but none that I have seen so far zoom in on the two districts drawn for Austin, and some of the oddities there. I wanted to send those out simultaneoulsly with the above story, but that proved unrealistic. I will complete them and publish them in a few days. Thanks, Daryl
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