Texas House Democrats are still on the lam, but the glory is beginning to fade. It hasn’t helped that some in the national media have pointed out to Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker that his state — where most fleeing Democrats are hiding out — is very gerrymandered itself, in favor of Democrats. Anyone familiar at all with Illinois political history will realize that gerrymandering there did not originate with J.B. Pritzker. But, still, it’s not a great look for Democrats to be holed up in a state pretty seriously gerrymandered in their favor.
That is just one of the factors working against Texas Democrats in this struggle. Among the other forces working against them are time, mathematics, and the power of Texas Governor Greg Abbott to call a special session anytime he wants.
So some Democrats are by necessity beginning to face what the realities will be when the plan passes. That includes the possibility of Congressman Greg Casar, who took office in 2023, running against Lloyd Doggett, who has served in Congress since 1994. While Doggett’s district remains largely intact the same is not true for Casar. Casar’s current District 35 includes most of East Austin with IH 35 mainly the western boundary. It then stretches to southern and western parts of San Antonio and western Bexar County. Along the way to San Antonio it takes in narrow swaths of Hays, Comal and Guadalupe Counties.
The new mid-decade version proposed by Texas Republicans (after calls for mid-decade redistricting from President Donald Trump) removes the Austin and Travis County parts of Casar’s District 35. It also extends the southern part of the district further west — to the southwestern parts of San Antonio and Bexar County, plus extending into southeastern Bexar County – see map at top. Meanwhile the District adds significantly more Republicans by adding more of Guadalupe County plus all of Wilson and Karnes counties to the southeast of Bexar.
Casar can either run in the new D35 or take on Doggett in the Democratic primary next March. Despite this possibility Doggett and Casar have so far presented an admirable united front challenging the Republican mid-decade redistricting; rather than engaging in any obvious maneuvering for a potential run against each other.
As the reality of the situation has sunk in, however, both men have evidently been working behind the scenes to try and preserve a seat in Congress. For Doggett this just means preparing to run in his existing, somewhat altered District. His new proposed district includes parts of East Austin, currently in Casar’s District), that Doggett has represented before.
For Casar it is more complicated and he is clearly pondering a run against the veteran Doggett. Talk of such a race is beginning to sweep through Austin Democratic circles.
This burst into the open on Sunday night August 10 when Doggett sent out an email inviting supporters to a September fundraising event and rally. In the letter/email Doggett exhibited a mix of the wiliness of a veteran politician and the commitment to the democratic principles (small d and capital D) that he has displayed throughout his long career. It is left to each individual citizen to determine how they view the mix of these qualities in Doggett’s letter; as well as to evaluate any other aspects of the situation and qualities of the candidates important to each individual.
A core theme of Doggett’s email is that Casar could thwart at least part of the Republican’s gerrymandering thrust, and help Democrats win back the House in next year’s midterm elections. The midterm Congressional elections will determine whether Donald Trump is able to spend his entire second term with Republicans in control of both houses of Congress — and all three branches of government — or whether he faces a Democratic controlled House in the last two years of his term that could potentially block or alter some of his policies. The stakes could hardly be higher. And, realistically, Democrats’ chances are widely believed to be better in the House than in the Senate. If Casar pulled it off he would be national news.
The above maps show the current Congressional districts represented by Lloyd Doggett (l) and Greg Casar (r). Both maps are from Congress.gov. I was unable to locate an usable map showing them both together. The map at the top of the page is from Texas Legislature Online (TLO) and shows the newly drawn districts that are pending approval from the Republican dominated legislature. The above two maps of the current districts can be found here and here. And this link will lead you to the TLO map.
Doggett’s Letter
In his letter Doggett also makes it clear that he intends to run for his currently held seat again in 2026. He begins:
“The Trump redistricting scheme for Texas and multiple other states is a travesty. We have to continue fighting back, not fighting one another. As you are aware, I long ago filed for reelection in Congressional District 37. Surprisingly, this district has been left largely intact. Over 2/3 of my current constituents will remain in the Trump reconfigured CD37.” Doggett adds, accurately, that “As for Trump redistricting, some reports have been a bit misleading in indicating that Austin’s two congressional districts have been combined. Less than 1/3 of the residents of my reconfigured CD37 are currently in CD35, represented by Greg Casar, to the East of I35.” Doggett adds that he “represented (these voters East of IH 35) 2 1/2 years ago when I was the Congressmember for those living in this stretch of territory from San Antonio to Austin.”
Congressman Lloyd Doggett
Doggett then describes how, in his view, the best interests of Democrats nationally involves Casar running in Casar’s current district rather than challenging him. “If this sorry Trump map for Texas is eventually approved, I remain hopeful that Congressman Casar will not abandon his reconfigured CD35 [Congressional District 35] , in which he is the only incumbent. While difficult, it is probably the most winnable Trump-created new district. He has the potential to use his organizing skills and populist message to win over the disaffected, particularly disaffected Hispanic voters. This could become a national model for turning back the Trump tide. Without Greg’s power of incumbency and ability to attract support, this seat could be lost by a weaker Democratic nominee.”
Doggett goes on to explain, “CD35 still exists, but Trump reconfigured it to be based in San Antonio rather than Austin. Its population is 57% Hispanic, a larger percentage of Hispanics than in the current CD35. Shifting focus from Austin is difficult. I know what it was like to open a campaign office in McAllen and later in San Antonio.”
In that last sentence Doggett refers to previous Republican efforts to gerrymander him out of office by extending his District to the Rio Grande Valley, and, in a subsequent gerrymander, to San Antonio. Each time Republicans tried to get rid of him through gerrymandering Doggett beat them back and prevailed.
Doggett then offered some political analysis and voting history of the newly configured/proposed District 35:
“With a strong effort, CD35 can be won: Beto O’Rourke edged out Ted Cruz (within the proposed new boundaries of the district); Joe Biden secured 49%, and though Trump won it, Colin Allred secured 48%. Next year Trump will not be on the ballot to draw MAGA to the polls.”
According to both CNN and Politico the new map for District 35 transforms it from one in which Kamala Harris prevailed last year by 34 percentage points to one which Trump carried by a 10-percentage point margin last year. These are real vote totals, but are calculated on the current and proposed, boundaries of the District.
Doggett then closes, “I hope that I can apply all of your contributions for our September reception to help others in Texas and across the country to overcome Trump’s attempts to manipulate the election (meaning he hopes he doesn’t have to apply them to a fight for his seat in the Democratic primary). But if I am challenged in Austin, I stand ready to vigorously and forcefully defend my progressive, pay-as-you-go record and my commitment to the only city I have ever called home. Your support is a way of indicating that you agree that two seats are better than fighting over one.” He also titled the letter/email “Two Seats are better than one! Save the Date. Save our democracy.”
Earlier in his letter Doggett subtly (depending on how one reads it) addressed what would likely be Casar’s core argument against him, that the 78-year-old Doggett, should step aside for the younger Democrat:
“In Congress, seniority is an asset, not a liability. In a House again controlled by Democrats, seniority is power. And in fighting Republican shenanigans, experience is an asset. Nor was I personally slowed in working in all-night efforts to amend and fight Trump’s Big Ugly Bill, which harms so many in so many ways.
With a Democratic victory for the House next year, I will be restored as a senior member of the Budget Committee and Chair of the Health Subcommittee. I will be second in seniority on the House Ways and Means Committee addressing a wide range of important concerns from Trump’s tariff taxes to preserving health care access and Social Security solvency.”
Between the lines of his letter Doggett frames Casar’s choice as whether to engage in a battle against another Democrat, in order to keep a seat in Congress; or to take a more courageous and selfless path and seek to win a Republican majority district which could be decisive in whether Democrats are able to win back the House in 2026; something that could be crucial to the future of the country by checking Trump’s power.
During his time in Austin politics Casar has had few detractors among Democrats or in the media (yours truly excepted). In the rare instances when Casar has been criticized one of the criticisms is that he is much more focused on personal advancement than on advancing the interests of the constituents and institutions (like the City of Austin) that he represents. One example would be Casar’s knowingly futile quest for the City of Austin to require employers to provide health insurance, when he had to know that was not a power given to cities under state law. His ordinance was quickly struck down in court and no one ever got insurance. Yet Casar still heralds that supposedly noble effort, as did some media outlets when he ran for Congress.
Doggett’s letter subtly hints at these Casar attributes by setting up a choice, for Casar, of whether he will seek to add to the number of Democratic Congressional seats in an historic election or to fight over a seat that it is certain Democrats will hold. One thing that Doggett didn’t directly mention is that Casar would likely have to move to San Antonio (or less likely one of the less urban counties in the district) in order to run, or at least to continue to represent District 35. Members of Congress are only required to live in the state in which their district is located, not in the district itself. Nonetheless, not living in the district would be a political liability in trying to win an election to represent it. It seems that this liability would be aggravated if the candidate lived in Austin while trying to win an election to represent a district that does not include Austin.
Doggett email immediately covered in national media outlet
The Washington-based national publication Politico ran a story on Doggett’s email the day after it was sent. This likely reflects either some effective advance planning by the Doggett team or a very on the job Politico staff — or some combination of the two.
For his part, Casar’s office — probably wisely — did not respond to Politico for their story. He instead made a semi-cryptic social media post saying, “I love you Austin, Texas.” Former Texas State Senator/former gubernatorial Wendy Davis emerged to speak on Casar’s behalf — whether officially or not it is unclear.
Politico summarizes her response like this: “Davis said in an interview that she doesn’t think it’s fair to ask Casar ‘to sacrifice his political trajectory’ in a race that’s ultimately a long shot.” That was followed by a longer quote from Davis:
“I think there’s a feeling that while we all should right now be focusing on trying to support our Texas House Democrats, who are fighting like hell to keep this map from passing, Lloyd got way out in front of any conversation about this to try to honestly head Greg off at the pass. I think that a broader discussion with voters in Austin needs to be had. And this just feels one-sided, and it feels like it’s just trying to get a jump on Greg without giving him an opportunity to really give his perspective on this.”
Wendy Davis rose to national fame in 2013 for her thirteen-hour filibuster against an anti-abortion bill in the Texas Senate. Davis’s filibuster stopped that bill from passing during a special session, but it passed in a subsequent special session — likely the same fate that will happen with Democratic attempts to stop the current Republican redistricting plan. While still beloved among many Democrats for that filibuster, Davis is not an expert on winning elections.
Davis’s filibuster eventually catapulted her into the 2014 Democratic nomination for governor. Her rise was accompanied by the traditional Democratic fervor that they had finally found a candidate who could win statewide. Davis went on to pull 38% of the vote against Greg Abbott who polled 59%, winning his first term in office.
Davis returned to electoral politics in 2020 with a much publicized run for Congress in a hill country district that included parts of Austin. She pulled 45%, losing to Republican Chip Roy who still holds the seat.
Ironically Casar almost certainly cost her some votes — and arguably the election — with his heavily self-publicized leadership role in slashing/defunding Austin’s police department. Casar’s effort was actually part defund and part transfer of some police functions — like forensics — to other departments so that it wouldn’t be counted as part of the police budget. The latter was both an attempt to convince activists that the Council was actually defunding the cops as well as a move to evaluate moving these functions out of the police department permanently.
The really devastating, and lasting part, of this action was the elimination of cadet classes for a year. Combined with officers leaving due to plummeting morale this resulted in a serious shortage of officers which endures today and is exemplified in the new City budget by Chief Lisa Davis proposing to move officers back on patrol who are currently serving as detectives and in other non-patrol duties. (After the 2020 City Council vote, the governor and legislature later passed a law prohibiting cuts to police budgets like those made by Casar and the Austin City Council. But, the damage from cutting cadet classes has endured.)
Several Republican Congressmen whose districts touch or are near Austin were facing serious Democratic challenges at the time of the August 2020 defund vote. One of them, Congressman Roger Williams, publicly described the Austin City Council’s defund vote to be a “winning message” for Republicans. He and other area Republican members proceeded to hammer on that issue and all of them won.
Whether Doggett would raise these issues or not remains to be seen. They would likely be hinderances to Casar in a D35 race. This might encourage him to instead challenge Doggett in Austin, where public safety concerns have not proven to be an issue in Democratic primaries. On the other hand Casar clearly has statewide and perhaps even national ambitions. Moving higher up would mean reckoning with his Defund the Police past at some point.
Another policy area where Casar’s record could be problematic is on spending and taxes. The coming tax rate election on the City of Austin budget clearly traces back to the free spending days of the Casar-led City Councils when Steve Adler was Mayor.
Whatever role these or other issues would play in a Doggett-Casar race — or a Casar run for his current, redrawn district — remain purely hypothetical at this point. In any case though Doggett clearly stands ready to defend his seat. And Casar has a tough choice to make.
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