Here’s a mind-bender question for hard core Democrats, especially, let’s say, Democrats who watch a lot of MS NOW, formerly MSNBC.
Would you believe a poll from Fox News if it showed your Senate candidate ahead with a chance to be the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Texas since 1988?
Well that’s exactly what just happened and here’s the lead from the Fox News story about the poll:
“President Donald Trump won the Lone Star state by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, but a new Fox News Poll of Texas registered voters suggests this year’s Senate race is far less settled.”
The poll, conducted from July 23 to July 27 poll has Democrat James Talarico ahead 51%-48% over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. The same poll shows the less well funded Democratic gubernatorial candidate, State Representative Gina Hinojosa, only one point behind three term Governor Greg Abbott; 50%-49%. (The Fox poll did not have undecideds.)
In more good news for Talarico his “favorable” rating in the Fox poll is higher than Trump’s (Texas rating), 49% to 45%. Paxton also polled at 45% favorable. Abbott is at 50%.
Hinojosa is down at 45% favorable, but she also has the lowest “unfavorable” rating among the five (Talarico, Paxton, Trump, Abbott, Hinojosa). Hinojosa’s unfavorable rating in only 34%. Part of the reason is that she is the least known candidate in the race with 19% having “never heard of” her. That gives Hinojosa a chance to increase her favorable total if she can raise enough funds to introduce herself to voters all over the state. That should be somewhat less difficult after polling only one point behind Abbott. On the other hand a good portion of the people who never heard of her will be Republicans. Still, this poll is really good news for her campaign.
A Short But Steady Climb in the Polls
The Fox poll reflects a steady climb by Talarico. According to the Real Clear Politics collection of polls, Talarico tied with Paxton at 46% in an early June poll by Texas A&M/Siena. A poll shortly after that one, by Quantas Insights had Paxton ahead 45-43. That was quickly followed by a Texas Politics Project/UT poll (called “University of Texas” poll on the Real Clear Politics list) where Paxton led by one, 43-42. Then the two were tied again in a late June poll in a New York Times/Siena poll.
Next, in a Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll taken from July 15-17, Talarico emerged with a five-point lead 45-40. The Fox poll landed a week later, with Talarico leading 51-48.
This all leaves Talarico ahead by 0.9 percent in the Real Clear Politics average.
Fox also asked the favorable-unfavorable question about the Republican and Democratic parties. Republicans were at 48% favorable and 50% unfavorable while Democrats polled a surpassingly close 45% favorable, but also were at 54% “unfavorable.” This follows an ongoing national trend in which people are increasingly negative about Republicans, but still dislike Democrats more.
Ken Paxton left and Greg Abbott right – screenshots from their campaign websites. Photo at top is screenshot from Talarico’s campaign website.
Despite Media Narrative Talarico Pulling Huge Portion of Black Vote
One of the biggest line items in the poll was Talarico pulling 87% of the Black vote.
That builds on the 67% of the Black vote he got in the June Texas Politics Project poll. As Houston Public Media noted in reporting on that poll, Talarico’s 67% figure with Black voters was 20 points ahead of where Beto O’Rourke was at the same time in his legendary but still losing effort against Ted Cruz in 2018. Nonetheless a widespread media narrative persisted that Talarico is in trouble with Black voters.
That view was primarily based on two things: a single Black person heckling Talarico at an event in Houston — where he was welcomed with a standing ovation; and on the simple-minded belief that a large portion of Black voters would reject Talarico just because he defeated a Black person, Jasmine Crockett, in the primary. We’ll see if Talarico’s 87% in the Fox News poll ends that narrative.
By the way it looks like the Austin American-Statesman was the first to break from the media herd on that narrative. They put up a story Friday night (July 31) headlined, “Fox News poll shows strong Black voter support for Talarico as he leads Paxton.”
Talarico has a right to be proud of his standing with Black voters and he appears ready to spend a significant portion of his campaign funds to help drive a large Black turnout, in the only poll that really counts. He almost certainly cannot win without a large Black turnout with a big margin in his favor. That alone though will not likely be enough to put Talarico over the top. He will have to convince a significant number of people that tend to vote Republican to vote for him.
There are some indications in the Fox News poll as to how Talarico is doing with such voters, but it’s far too early to be conclusive.
The Margin to Win
Promisingly for Talarico, he is pulling 68% of independents in the Fox poll. Meanwhile virtually all Democrats, 98%, support Talarico, but fewer Republicans are unified behind Paxton, 89%. If Paxton can’t increase his numbers with Republicans and Independents then he could truly be in trouble.
Talarico is also pulling 63% of “moderates,” who are not broken out by party in Fox’s reporting on the poll. Meanwhile, “people under 30” support Talarico at 62%. Critically, with “Hispanic Voters” — a large and crucially important group of voters — Talarico is pulling 59%.
Another hopeful sign for Talarico is that he pulled 48% of “men” in the Fox poll. That is better than Democrats normally do. With women, he is pulling 54%.
Talarico’s worst group in the Fox poll is “white evangelicals” at 21%. But, of course they were always likely to stick with the guy whose wife divorced him on “Biblical” grounds, that being Ken Paxton for any who are just now tuning in. It would seem though that Talarico’s open Christianity isn’t directly paying off for him, at least not with white evangelicals. He is doing better with “regular worship attenders” at 42%, but this number is probably skewed upward somewhat by Talarico’s Black support.
So, right now things are looking pretty good for Talarico. In fact he appears to be in a more favorable place than any Democrat during the Texas Democratic Party’s three decades long losing streak in statewide races. He has shown considerable vision and savvy getting to the point he has.
Republican attacks have not hit home so far. That might be because some of them are so bizarre. For instance Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick said he is certain Talarico will “go to hell.” And, a Tennessee pastor, Brooks Potteiger, said he wants Talarico to be “crucified with Christ.” Potteiger had a Biblical reference that he used to try and explain what he meant. Nonetheless, it sure appears that he assigned Talarico a role that he (Potteiger) didn’t intend. And, of course the Texas Lieutenant Governor does not have the power to send people to hell. These attacks may be working with “white evangelicals,” but, if so, don’t appear to be spreading much further.
But, there’s a long way to go. Fox quoted Republican pollster Daron Shaw saying that Paxton’s campaign against John Cornyn “left scars.” Consequently, “He (Paxton) has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents, and that undoubtedly requires aggressively tying Talarico to the Democratic Party’s far left.”
Yes, in the weeks ahead Republicans will be trying to paint Talarico as “far left” and way out of the mainstream. There is some material for them to use. Paxton though might not be a good messenger to deliver that or any other message. Governor Abbott, on the other hand, is historically pretty effective at negative campaigning. While Paxton and Cornyn faced off in the Republican primary, Abbott stepped in and lobbed occasional political grenades at Talarico. In fact from the public view he appears to be focusing more on the Senate race than his own. The governor may soon, however, have to focus on his own race. He may have to abandon his strategy of ignoring his Democratic opponent.
The Hinojosa Campaign
Hinojosa should not be written off. She is a clear underdog with nowhere near the amount of money Talarico has raised, not to mention Abbott. But, the Fox poll could give her a fundraising boost. It would be unwise to underestimate her. She is not a knee jerk far left Democrat. She’s probably got less to attack than Talarico does. And, she is thoughtful and doesn’t always go with the crowd.
Gina Hinojosa – screenshot from her campaign website
Hinojosa also understands that in order to win she needs to win over some people who usually vote Republican, including for Trump. For instance on her campaign website she says “I fight for neighborhood schools alongside both union teachers and MAGA moms – because it doesn’t matter what political party you are, it’s about putting our kids first.” Hinojosa is also a strong proponent of health care and is taking it to Abbott on “corruption.”
Also, Hinojosa grew up in the Rio Grande Valley, still has family there and announced her campaign from her native town of Brownsville. Those connections should help her in a very key area. In addition Hinojosa appears capable of taking the fight to Abbott, who has tried to ignore her so far.
So, only time will tell whether Talarico and possibly Hinojosa make history by breaking the Republicans’ 32-year long winning streak in statewide races — 38 years in US Senate races.
But this could be the year.
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